Subscribe To
Posts
All Comments
Saturday, April 26, 2008
Obama Vs. Clinton
As a Republican, I have pulled for Barack Obama to win. My thinking is that he is absolutely unelectable. There was a time I thought that, then I began to rethink his electability as he turned from novice to superstar. He WAS literally a movement. As he reeled off wins in the early primaries, 11 straight at one point, it became clear he would be the nominee and not Hillary. That remains true to this day. But in the interim the critical reality about Barack Obama was revealed, unfortunately for Hillary, it was revealed too late.
When the Reverend Wright controversy hit, it dealt a critical, nearly mortal blow. The week-long media frenzy over pastor-gate exposed the world in which he lived at worst, and bad political judgement at best. To allow his political viability to be tied to such an outrageous figure as his pastor turns out to be, reveals a lack of understanding of the world around him, I mean that for a man who wants to be President. He had to know that at some point the nature of his church would be revealed, but it caused him no concern. He was "surprised." I suppose it's also true there was nothing he could do about it. His children were baptized by Rev. Wright, he gave money to the church, and he no doubt listened to similiar rants as were revealed in the pastor-gate firestorm.
"God-damned America," indeed. This alone brought Obama from Superstar to regular guy, and then some. He at once became the black candidate, a far cry from the messianic deliverer of peace and harmony and the elusive change that only he had total understanding of, to be revealed to the rest of us later. If this had happened earlier in the campaign it would have brought him down and Hillary would be the nominee. But this happened AFTER he took the lead in the race, after 11 straight wins.
Make no mistake about it, Obama will be the nominee for the Democrats, the party's super-delegates will have no choice, no real choice that is, but to give him the nomination. Even with pastor-gate and more recently with the unbelievable comments about small town people and their bitterness, the party is stuck now with Obama. Hillary Clinton remains in place hoping for a miracle, a controversy more tantalizing than the two already in place. And she positions herself for 2012. She knows she has lost but she also knows anything is possible, especially with Barack. Both candidates are already severely damaged, and exposed. Even if a miracle occurs for Hillary, she will lampooned for her lies about sniper-fire in Bosnia relentlessly. The word "lie" is huge for a candidate, especially when it's so obvious and easy to understand as this mini-gate is. She has no answer for it. Obama has no answer, none that work, for his controversies either. So now we wait, at a critical point, where a decision needs to be made but also where one will not simply be had, as damaged and downtrodden candidates have no choice but to drag eachother down even more. McCain sits on the sidelines. It's certainly not a given that all of this will hand McCain the election, in the big picture this is one the Democrats should win, but Republican should be reveling in the mere fact that there is a hope.
When the Reverend Wright controversy hit, it dealt a critical, nearly mortal blow. The week-long media frenzy over pastor-gate exposed the world in which he lived at worst, and bad political judgement at best. To allow his political viability to be tied to such an outrageous figure as his pastor turns out to be, reveals a lack of understanding of the world around him, I mean that for a man who wants to be President. He had to know that at some point the nature of his church would be revealed, but it caused him no concern. He was "surprised." I suppose it's also true there was nothing he could do about it. His children were baptized by Rev. Wright, he gave money to the church, and he no doubt listened to similiar rants as were revealed in the pastor-gate firestorm.
"God-damned America," indeed. This alone brought Obama from Superstar to regular guy, and then some. He at once became the black candidate, a far cry from the messianic deliverer of peace and harmony and the elusive change that only he had total understanding of, to be revealed to the rest of us later. If this had happened earlier in the campaign it would have brought him down and Hillary would be the nominee. But this happened AFTER he took the lead in the race, after 11 straight wins.
Make no mistake about it, Obama will be the nominee for the Democrats, the party's super-delegates will have no choice, no real choice that is, but to give him the nomination. Even with pastor-gate and more recently with the unbelievable comments about small town people and their bitterness, the party is stuck now with Obama. Hillary Clinton remains in place hoping for a miracle, a controversy more tantalizing than the two already in place. And she positions herself for 2012. She knows she has lost but she also knows anything is possible, especially with Barack. Both candidates are already severely damaged, and exposed. Even if a miracle occurs for Hillary, she will lampooned for her lies about sniper-fire in Bosnia relentlessly. The word "lie" is huge for a candidate, especially when it's so obvious and easy to understand as this mini-gate is. She has no answer for it. Obama has no answer, none that work, for his controversies either. So now we wait, at a critical point, where a decision needs to be made but also where one will not simply be had, as damaged and downtrodden candidates have no choice but to drag eachother down even more. McCain sits on the sidelines. It's certainly not a given that all of this will hand McCain the election, in the big picture this is one the Democrats should win, but Republican should be reveling in the mere fact that there is a hope.
Fight for the White House
Well, for political junkies this election year is just about as good as it gets. The Republicans have virtually nominated a candidate who was about 100 bucks from being history in the middle of the nominating process. He was finished. The well financed, and well managed campaigns failed miserably.
Mitt Romney spent more money and put more energy into his campaign than perhaps all of the other candidates combined, but something was missing always, or perhaps it was the big something that nobody wanted to mention that grounded his effort. Mitt's Mormonism was just too much for many people, whether they would admit it or not, and most would not admit it. Americans had to endure getting yelled at by the pundits and talking heads and professional pols for a few weeks about how outrageous it would be if we were to exclude a person from the Presidency due to their religion, but we endured. While there was truth, in the purest sense and understanding of American politics, in the argument that religion should not matter, we all know that religion does in fact matter. It doesn't officially matter, but it matters.
The Guliani strategy, such an unbelievable failure, remarkable in it's speed and effect, might be worth a book or two for some future study in American presidential aspirants. Guliani, I believe, would have won the nomination, or at the very least competed, but instead decided his weakness in the early states would be too much to overcome. That may have been true, but to give up weeks of free press coverage had the same effect. In other words, he should have viewed it as "worth a shot," to keep his hat in the ring until the more friendly primary states had their votes, but instead gambled and failed badly.
I personally never viewed Huckabee as a serious possibility to get the nomination much less win in November. He was just far too much a preacher-presidential nominee, a hopeless combination following an evangelical presidency. A 2008 nominee was not going to be able to preach a sermon on Sunday, in the midst of a campaign, especially in 2008, but not even in the past or the foreseeable future.
McCain's nomination, unofficial at this point, was perhaps a nomination of attrition, due far more to the characteristics and strategic failures of Romney and Guliani than to anything magical that McCain himself possessed. But the nominee the Republicans didn't think they wanted, may turn out to be the one that is best suited to face the Democrats in this almost impossible year for Republicans. The moderate wing of the Republican Party has won out, and the timing might be perfect.
Mitt Romney spent more money and put more energy into his campaign than perhaps all of the other candidates combined, but something was missing always, or perhaps it was the big something that nobody wanted to mention that grounded his effort. Mitt's Mormonism was just too much for many people, whether they would admit it or not, and most would not admit it. Americans had to endure getting yelled at by the pundits and talking heads and professional pols for a few weeks about how outrageous it would be if we were to exclude a person from the Presidency due to their religion, but we endured. While there was truth, in the purest sense and understanding of American politics, in the argument that religion should not matter, we all know that religion does in fact matter. It doesn't officially matter, but it matters.
The Guliani strategy, such an unbelievable failure, remarkable in it's speed and effect, might be worth a book or two for some future study in American presidential aspirants. Guliani, I believe, would have won the nomination, or at the very least competed, but instead decided his weakness in the early states would be too much to overcome. That may have been true, but to give up weeks of free press coverage had the same effect. In other words, he should have viewed it as "worth a shot," to keep his hat in the ring until the more friendly primary states had their votes, but instead gambled and failed badly.
I personally never viewed Huckabee as a serious possibility to get the nomination much less win in November. He was just far too much a preacher-presidential nominee, a hopeless combination following an evangelical presidency. A 2008 nominee was not going to be able to preach a sermon on Sunday, in the midst of a campaign, especially in 2008, but not even in the past or the foreseeable future.
McCain's nomination, unofficial at this point, was perhaps a nomination of attrition, due far more to the characteristics and strategic failures of Romney and Guliani than to anything magical that McCain himself possessed. But the nominee the Republicans didn't think they wanted, may turn out to be the one that is best suited to face the Democrats in this almost impossible year for Republicans. The moderate wing of the Republican Party has won out, and the timing might be perfect.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
