The Clinton Finale II and Election 2008

And so here we go. I think in the final analysis the fight between Hillary and Obama forces did little damage to the Party's prospect for 2008. There is a percentage who will not vote for Obama, who had supported Hillary but by November the choice will be so clear no more than 5%, perhaps 7% from numbers I've seen, will actually defect. Not that those numbers might not be critical, they could be, but we will not see a full-blown 20% defection rate, which would obviously hand the election to McCain.

Now the battle begins for key battleground states, and in my view we have new battleground states as a result of the nuances of this election. The moderation of McCain, and the race of Barack throw the old electoral map out the window. Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio. These three states are critical. If McCain can win Michigan, where he leads now by about 3 points, his task becomes much easier. If he can tack on Ohio as well, he wins. The key is that if he can maintain Michigan, he can afford to lose Ohio but would need help elsewhere and have much less wiggle room. If they split Michigan and Ohio, the race is thrown to the Southwest US where New Mexico and Colorado will become critical. In my view, New Mexico will decide this election. If Obama takes Ohio, and McCain takes Michigan, which is possible, essentially New Mexico decides this in the electoral college. McCain can even lose Colorado in that scenario. The key however is that neither candidate has any signicant room for error in the electoral college. Obama can't afford to lose Wisconsin. McCain has to win either Ohio or Michigan. He can't lose both or there is no realistic scenario that gives him 270. All of this assumes nothing happens that radically shapes any key state alignment toward red or blue. If Florida goes into play for Obama, McCain would have no choice but to defend, because he cannot lose Florida's 27 votes under any scenario. McCain should concentrate now on Michigan, New Mexico, Ohio, and make sure he holds Florida. He also needs to keep a close watch on Virginia because he can't lose that one either.