Obama V. Clinton - N.C and Indiana

It's easy to get caught up in the momentum of Hillary Clinton going into Tuesday's primaries in North Carolina and Indiana. Obama has been hurt badly, obviously, by the Reverand Wright controversies and that has put a damper on what had started to become inevitable. But both the long term and short term realities make Hillary's effort as difficult as ever.

In the big picture the Democratic Party, regardless of the near-term damage done to Obama, has no choice but to recognize the Obama campaign prior to the Wright issues. He still leads the popular vote, the state total, and the delegate count, and nothing will make those realities go away no matter what happens in the remaining primaries. It's still Obama's nomination to lose somehow, and only the super-delegates can do that to him.

That choice, if it were to be made, would be devastating to the party unless, and it's possible, Obama were to decide to accept the super-delegate choice and back Clinton un-categorically, even campaigning FOR her in the general election. I don't know if he would do that or not. He might be able to view a bigger picture for himself, realizing his age and potential for a future run, but it seems more likely that in that position the combination of his personal bitterness and his need for a McCain win to allow a 2012 run (just as Hillary's back-up plan is a McCain win for her own re-run in 2012) would make his substantial support for a Hillary win in the general election unlikely. He might support her, but he could support her in word only, and walk off the stage, leaving Hillary with an extremely difficult electoral map to work with against a moderate opponent.

The conventional wisdom over the last few days has been that Obama has lost his substantial lead in N. Carolina but should still win, and that he has lost Indiana in a complete reversal of fortunes. We shouldn't be so sure. Without a doubt that has been the direction of these races and the thought has been that a split would keep Hillary in the race and perhaps move super-delegates in her direction. But a look at the most recent polls shows yet another reversal. While Obama has lost a 15 point lead in North Carolina, down to a 5 to 7 point lead, the very latest poll shows him back up by 9, actually two polls, both Zogby and Rasmussen have him up now by 9. And in Indiana, where he once had a 3 point lead only to see that crash to a 3 point deficit and then more, the very latest poll taken Friday and Saturday show a radical shift back in his direction from as much as a 5 to 7 (or more) point potential loss to a 2 percentage point LEAD. The public dissatisfaction with continual negative coverage, the sympathy effect, and Barack's dismissal of Wright altogether, has had it's effect, and just in time.

If Obama can pull off a sweep on Tuesday, Hillary Clinton's campaign would be close to devastation, in my view. She would face enormous pressure to concede from party leaders, and while she probably wouldn't do that, the momentum from a double win would carry into the remaining states and/or make them less remarkable to the point where the super-delegates choice would be essentially made. Hillary would truly, at that point, only be hanging on for a miracle. She would also be on the verge of destroying her own reputation for a possible future run. If they do split, the bad news for the Democrats goes on and we can only re-assess at a different time.